- Housing output up almost 40% year on year in Q4 2025 driven by sharp rise in apartment completions
- Just over 16,000 commencements during 2025, down from more than 69,300 in 2024, when activity surged ahead of the expiry of development levy waivers
- Sharp rise in spending on home improvements, from €3.9 billion in 2019 to over €7.5 billion in 2024, while second-hand property sales and mover purchaser mortgage drawdowns decline
The latest BPFI Housing Market Monitor (Q4 2025) shows a broadly positive outlook for the housing and mortgage markets in 2026, supported by strong completion numbers and resilient mortgage drawdowns. However, a steep decline in new housing commencements during 2025 signals emerging risks to supply in 2027. Meanwhile, spending on home improvements has risen sharply, while second-hand property sales and mover purchaser mortgage drawdowns have declined.
Over 36,000 housing units completed in 2025, the highest annual total recorded since the twelve months ending June 2009
Outlining the key findings from the monitor, Brian Hayes, Chief Executive of BPFI stated: “Today’s report shows that there were 36,284 housing completions in 2025, according to the Central Statistics Office (CSO), over 20% (20.4%) more than in 2024 and the highest annual total recorded since the twelve months ending June 2009. The final quarter of the year saw particularly strong activity, with 12,000 homes completed, up 38.5% compared with the same period in 2024. More than half of the annual increase in 2025 was driven by a sharp rise in apartment completions. This was primarily in Dublin, where apartment output rose by over 46% to more than 9,600 units. Also of note, is the fact that one-off or self-build homes represented just over 16% of national completions, and in nine counties they accounted for at least 40% of all new dwellings.”
New housing starts fell significantly in 2025 to 16,000 units
Mr Hayes continued:
“In contrast, new housing starts fell significantly in 2025. There were just over 16,000 commencements during the year, down from more than 69,300 in 2024, when activity surged ahead of the expiry of development levy waivers. Commencements fell sharply in key local authorities, particularly Dublin City, Fingal, and South Dublin, with activity declining by almost 84% in Fingal and South Dublin. Self-builds accounted for 23% of all starts, the highest share since 2018. Notably, units commenced in 2024 must be completed by the end of 2026 to qualify for levy waivers, so we should expect overall housing output to reach nearly 39,000 units in 2026, assuming the strong momentum in construction continues. However, the low level of commencements in 2025, particularly in relation to housing schemes and apartments, at only 12,600 units, points to a likely reduction in output in 2027 unless commencements rebound significantly during 2026.”
Spending on home improvements has increased sharply while second hand property market declines
Looking more closely at the second-hand property market, Mr Hayes added:
“The number of existing or second-hand homes sold fell for the third straight year in 2025 to 38,502, the lowest level since 2020. This implies that fewer second-hand homes are available to buy than in recent years but also that more homeowners may be staying and investing in their current homes rather than moving. Moreover, according to the latest CSO data, spending on home improvements has risen sharply in recent years, increasing from €3.9 billion in 2019 to over €7.5 billion in 2024, and is likely to have reached €8 billion in 2025. This sustained rise in improvement activity has coincided with the decline in second-hand property sales and mover purchaser mortgage drawdowns observed over the past three years.”
FTBs are driving today’s mortgage market in sharp contrast to previous decades
In relation to mortgage drawdown trends, Mr Hayes noted:
“Annual mortgage drawdown volumes increased by 7.7% in 2025 to 46,358, with first-time buyers (FTBs) accounting for 60% of all drawdowns. While total mortgage drawdown values peaked at nearly €40 billion in 2006, almost half of that total was driven by residential investment letting (RIL), switching, and top-up loans. By contrast, these categories represented only 16% of total drawdown values in 2025. In fact, the combined value of RIL and top-up drawdowns fell from approximately €14 billion in 2006 to just €0.6 billion in 2025. FTBs have also grown substantially as a share of the market, from 18% in 2006 to 60% in 2025 while mover purchaser activity has continued to weaken. Mover purchaser mortgages accounted for more than one third of the market in 2014, but volumes have now declined for three consecutive years and represented just 19% of the market in 2025, similar to shares seen at the height of the 2006 market, albeit with vastly different housing output (there were over 88,000 units in 2006).”
Mr Hayes concluded:
“Overall, 2025 delivered solid housing output and continued strength in the mortgage market and the outlook for 2026 looks positive for both the housing and mortgage markets. However, the steep decline in commencements during 2025 presents risks to future supply next year without a significant rebound in scheme and apartment commencements during this year.”
The BPFI Housing Market Monitor Q4 2025 is available to download here.
